Evaluation of Impact of ESG Rating and Environmental Performance Factors on the Level of Credit Risk and Shareholder Expectations of Companies in Carbon-Intensive Industries from BRICS Countries

Abstract

The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of ESG ratings, environmental (E) pillar scores and environmental performance metrics of non-financial companies from BRICS countries on their credit risks (measured by credit rating) and shareholder expectations (measured by enterprise value (EV) to sales multiple). Environmental performance metrics included emission scores, water efficiency scores, environmental management team scores and the ability to cope with climate risks scores. The relevance of the study is underpinned by the limited number of research in the field for BRICS countries and contradictory conclusions in research about the strength and direction of the influence of ESG factors on
the value and financial metrics of the companies. The ordered logit regression and OLS regression models were applied for credit ratings and EV/Sales multiple respectively. The sample included 206 companies from carbon-intensive industries from Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Russia for 2018-2021. Financial and ESG metrics were taken from Refinitiv while companies' credit ratings were taken from Moody’s and S&P. The results showed that the improvements in ESG and E-scores as well as environmental performance metrics hurt companies’ credit ratings. Conversely, the improvements in ESG, E-scores and environmental performance metrics had a positive impact on EV/Sales metrics. The latter confirms the TGMT (too-much-of-a-good-thing) effect of environmental performance as equity investors expect a positive effect from climate-related actions on equity performance in the long term.