Estimation of investments into large-scale projects

Abstract

Acceptance of investment decisions is based on the systematic analysis of the profitableness of investments. Managers use both methods of the analysis of profitableness, and additional tools of planning of the long-term capital investments. Estimation of projects of large real industrial investments is very important problem as such projects possess specific characteristics which strongly influence features of estimation of their profitableness. Traditional methods of the analysis of profitableness of investment projects do not approach for gross-investments. In the article definitions to such concepts as «very large industrial real investments» and «gross-investments» have been given, their features and the characteristic for an illustration of specificity of such investment projects, necessities of searching the models approaching for their estimation are considered. To analyze the gross-investment projects the Fuzzy Real Investment Valuation Model is used, which considers the changes of the cost of money during the period of time, insufficient accuracy of the estimation of initial variables, positive and negative changes of the cost of the project and the value of possibility of flexible management. The most important point of the estimation of such large investment projects is the account of a stage of their long life cycle. In the model which is used in the article an attempt to approach the estimation of profitableness of gross-investments to a reality is made. The given model reflects a range of probable costs of the planned investment project, including uncertainty of monetary streams and both positive, and negative potential shifts in cost of the project in the period of waiting before acceptance of the investment project and during the process of making it.