Adoption of Scenario Approach in Company’s Strategy Development

Abstract

Any company in market economy faces with a problem of acceptance of strategic decisions, under conditions of uncertainty concerning the future. Under conditions of economic crisis when level of uncertainty increases, this problem becomes especially actual. One of methods for reduction the influence of the uncertainty factor by the company activity, received a new push to development in second half of twentieth century, is the scenario approach. It gives responsibility to analyze the influence of possible changes of factors and their combinations on company’s activity and to make a decision on adequacy of strategy of company’s development and possibility of its realization in the given economic situation.  Given article offers one of possible techniques of the scenario approach with reference to realization of strategy of the company, based on the algorithm within the limits of model of scenarios research, developed by Bryant&Lempert (2010). Simulation model, on the basis of which scenarios are developed, can consider both internal strategic variables, and a considerable amount of external factors which influence company’s activity.