Forecasting Methods in Budgeting (Based on Irkutsk State Budget)

Abstract

Author: Andrey I. Kleshchinsky

Today state budget is one of the important tool of financial planning. Its accuracy measures the effectiveness of such vital state functions as government financing, internal and external security, social sphere, support of somesectors of the economy and so on. Using formalized forecasting methods in budgeting is one of the way to increase accuracy of budget. This article covers analysis of opportunities of using formalized forecasting methods in budgeting. On the basis of this analysis proposed forecasting algorithm in regional budgeting systems and assessed its accuracy on the basis of Irkutsk State budget. As a result, formalized forecasting methods allow to perform regional budget forecasting with more than 80% accuracy.