Дивидендные выплаты российских компаний: сигнал рынку или следствие агентских конфликтов?
Аннотация
В статье анализируется дивидендная политика российских компаний с использованием двух теорий дивидендных выплат: сигнальной и теории агентских издержек. В качестве данных используется выборка из 30 российских компаний в период с 2010 по 2021 г. Для проверки положений сигнальной теории построены модели регрессии пула и модели с фиксированными эффектами. Показано, что факт увеличения/уменьшения дивидендных выплат более чем на 20% в текущем году позволяет предсказать увеличение/уменьшение рентабельности активов через один и два года (по сравнению с годом до увеличения дивидендных выплат). Однако темп прироста дивидендных выплат не демонстрирует устойчивой связи с будущими значениями рентабельности активов. Для проверки положений агентской теории используется тобит модель, где в качестве переменной интереса выступает бинарная переменная наличия крупного мажоритарного акционера в виде государства, равная единице, если в прямой или косвенной государственной собственности находится более 30% акций компании и нулю в противном случае. Результаты не подтверждают применимость агентской теории к российскому рынку. Участие государства в акционерном капитале не оказывает существенного влияния на коэффициент выплаты дивидендов. Эти выводы способствуют пониманию взаимосвязи между дивидендной политикой компании и ее будущими финансовыми показателями, предоставляя полезный инструмент для российских инвесторов.
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Литература
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