Fundamental Adjustments of Multiples as a Tool to the Business Valuation Accuracy Improvement

Ilya Gurov; Aleksandr  Bochkarev

doi:10.17323/j.jcfr.2073-0438.19.2.2025.15-37

Ilya Gurov Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4057-9101
Aleksandr Bochkarev Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9748-0164

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/j.jcfr.2073-0438.19.2.2025.15-37

Keywords: business valuation, comparative valuation, P/E multiple, EV/EBITDA multiple, multiple adjustments, adjusted multiple, justified multiple, railway industry

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to assess the accuracy of the multiple adjustments in conditions of significant differences between the target and comparable companies. The article provides formulas for adjustments based on the Gordon model and its modifications for the P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. The research is based on such methods as analysis, synthesis, and the longitudinal method, modeling, descriptive and regression analysis were performed. Based on a sample of 38 public railway companies from 13 countries from 2017 to 2023, it was shown for the first time that as a result of adjustments to the P/E multiples in a sample of comparable companies, the standard deviation decreases from 28.7 to 1.2, the spread between 90 and 10 percentiles from 42.7 to 3.2, and the EV/EBITDA multiples decreases the standard deviation from 35.6 to 3.3, the spread between 90 and 10 percentiles from 21.2 to 6.2. Adjustments to the cost of capital and its component (in particular, the risk-free rate) lead to a significant 1% decrease in the spread between multiples of comparable companies. Adjustments for differences in the debt burden lead to a significant 10% decrease in the variability of the EV/EVITDA multiple. Adjustments for expected growth lead to an increase in the variability of multiples due to the difficulty of predicting long-term growth rates of companies. Adjustments to the cost of capital increase the accuracy of cost estimates (deviations from market data amount to 0.3 of net income and 0.5 of EBITDA). At the same time, adjustments only for the cost of capital are more accurate than adjustments for both the cost of capital and growth. Nevertheless, adjustments for both cost of capital and growth make it possible to obtain more accurate estimates than based on unadjusted multiples. In practice, it is advisable to adjust for differences in the cost of capital. If it is not possible to accurately estimate the future growth rates of the target and comparable companies, it is advisable to abandon the growth adjustment, or to carry it out only for differences in expected inflation (for companies from different countries).

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