Capabilities and Limitations of Artificial Intelligence in Social Analysis and Predicting the Future
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Keywords

prompt engineering
AI
hallucinations
ChatGPT
Crystal Bowl Conundrum
total intelligence society
knowledge worker
information worker
intelligence analyst
competitive intelligence
business intelligence
market intelligence

How to Cite

Klaus Solberg S. (2024). Capabilities and Limitations of Artificial Intelligence in Social Analysis and Predicting the Future. Foresight and STI Governance, 18(2), 6-20. Retrieved from https://cfjournal.hse.ru/index.php/foresight-journal/article/view/21900

Abstract

What is the literature on AI missing for prompting engineering so far, and how good are these services at Societal Analysis and Future Predictions? A literature review and laboratory tests were conducted using different AI services. This study provides an extensive list of research gaps based on an analysis of existing literature. Furthermore, it demonstrates that AI with well-crafted prompts performs as well as or better than senior intelligence analysts in Societal Analysis and Future Predictions. The literature and analysis make it clear that the role of the prompter, to ensure reliability, must be divided into two parts: Prompt Engineering and Information Quality Control (IQC), which in this context is distinct from Prompt Answer Engineering. This study also proposes a working process in the form of a model for using AI in information or intelligence gathering. Additionally, it outlines the rationale for why top managers’ salaries are likely to decrease as a result of these developments.

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